In the old American literature, Americans were not really enamored of their brown brothers.
For instance, in the fiction novel “Empire” by American author Gore VidaL,two high officials of the United States were having back and forth about the Philippines as part of their ongoing agenda. Ultimately, the two agreed to talk at length about their new “colony” at breakfast.
Their pressing moment was about “ the little splendid war” with then colonial Spain that gave up Puerto Rico, and added Guam and the Philippines to the Pacific empire. It was a war, former US Secretary of State John Hay was quoted as saying, “ begun with the highest motives, carried on with magnificent intelligence and spirit, favored by fortune which loves the brave”.
Things have since been changing along those sentimental lines.
Six years ago ,China was the apple of the eyes of PBBM’s predecessor. The Chinese were intelligent and kind-hearted. Mighty hegemon, too, is the Middle Kingdom , and could not see the Philippines fighting her over a piece of territory in the South China Sea. Not even a jet ski ride across the sea as a sign of protest. No way. Not even with a hard-won victory a world court that affirmed the territory is ours. Besides, didn’t he call a former US president an SOB?
Today,a new chapter for US-PH relation has just blossomed anew.
The bilateral talks two days ago between US President Joe Biden and Philippine President Bongbong Marcos have cemented the ancient love-hate-love relationship between the two countries on a new term of endearment. To Biden, Marcos is an incomparably better partner , especially in confronting China’s hegemonic actions in the South China Sea. To Marcos, the US is indispensable in how he sees the future.
That future is what four new bases under the enhanced defense capability agreement (EDCA) looks like. Ostensibly, they are part of the modernization of the Philippine armed forces. In reality, they are seen as deterrents to China’s ambition in the SCS, particularly in its goal to take back Taiwan as part of the mainland. No, no less than PBBM said, the bases will not be used by American soldiers, one way or the other.
What is public is propaganda, according to a former American intelligence (spy) chief, what is private is policy. So, tell it to the Marines?
Naturally, China is vehemently opposed to the four new bases. Taiwan is part of China’s ambition.Its driving objective for invasion or occupation sometime around 2027 or thereabout, by hook or by crook , and those four new bases could hinder the plan. Xi Jing Ping, for all its powers, has his limitations, like time. The EDCA bases may spoil his plan. If only someone , like a former Philippine president who loved China and hated war , had stayed longer in power. There would have no been such troubles or threats.
China must remember history. There was a time when the Soviet Union placed a missile base in Cuba. The Americans saw it as a threat to their security. Cuba was Russia’s satellite. The US imposed a blockade of Soviet Union ships going to Cuba and warned that American forces will board the soviet ships if they proceeded. For a while, a looming nuclear war between the two countries gripped the world , until the Soviet Union gave up its plan. Two persons were eyeball to eyeball, so it went, and the other guy blinked.
China must see those new EDCA bases in terms of how the US saw the missile base in Cuba:threats. So, there was too much diplomatic politeness and political naivete when it was deemed read out of context a Chinese official statement warning OFWs in Taiwan could be collateral damage of some kind. In context, it could be interpreted as a tit for a tat. PBBM appears to understand Chinese better, even if the late Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore once said that Chinese is a difficult language unless one is born to it.
Talks is cheap. The next time around, a Chinese Coast Guard nearly rammed into a small Philippine Coast Guard sailing in the West Philippine Sea. It’s the PGC’s provocative moves that the CCG blamed that could have caused the near mishap – or worse. It’s the Chinese version of the truth.
What happens now that PBBM seems to love Biden more and Xi less? Will there be less ships and militias , less or no more Chinese aggression in the WPS? Can Filipino fishermen fish more freely and merrily without being harassed and intimidated by Chinese? Biden, with PBBM as a better partner, will continue to banner its global leadership to champion democracy and rule-based order in the South China Sea. Xi, with its mandate from heaven, including a life-term as China’s president, will maintain the nine-dash-line is as old as truth.
For better or for worse, truth, or the lack of it, has its consequence.
How this will end, no knows for sure. If no one blinks, there will be more of the upping-the-ante type of activities from both sides that will only make this part of the world more dangerous. PBBM’s predecessor would have none of this for both political and existential reasons. PBBM, like his predecessor, has made his choice known. Many say his choice will be good for the country. Time will tell.
