IT’S STILL over a year from the 2010 elections but already wannabes are well into the campaign mode. And I mean not just the presidential pretenders, the local dreamers even more feverish this early into the game.
To all of them, here are some lessons that may come in handy.
You have no money? Dream on running, even winning. It won’t cost you a thing. But never wake from that dream and live the nightmare of political realities here.
Even as a candidate, you have already been claimed by the voters to be their personal one-way ATM: no deposit required but ready to dispense cash anytime of the day or night: for their power and water bills, cost of hospitalization, expenses for weddings, baptisms and funerals, even birthday parties and fiestas, milk for their infants, tuition for their kids.
You have money? Use it wisely.
Yes, this is most relevant to the comebacking Dinan Labung. More than a year before the 2004 elections, then Board Member Dinan was already crowing that thirty grand – that’s 30 thousand pesos, dummy – was doled out daily to his needy constituents even before the cock crowed in the morning. Into the campaign period, Dinan upped the ante to 50 grand. Still, he ended up in the kangkungan against Dr. Rey Aquino.
His 2004 experience unlearned, Dinan did the same route in 2007 and found himself in the pansitan against Dong Gonzales.
A dilemma: Identified as a generous giver in elections past, Dinan stands to lose a lot of the ground he covered in 2004 and 2007 if he tightens even just a bit his publicly-perceived-as-enormous campaign chest. Dati kang nagbibigay ng tig-500 daan, bigla kang magbibigay ng tig-100, magiging masama ka pa sa iyong binigyan.
The flash of wealth is more a liability than an asset. Still remember Don Pepito Mercado? Soaring in the people’s imagination as a mighty, invincible eagle in 1994, reduced to a pitiful pipit in the 1995 gubernatorial polls.
While it pays to be the official candidate of a party, especially the party in power, this is no sure-fire guarantee for victory.
In 1992, Boking Morales did the unprecedented: He was the official candidate of the two dominant parties at war for the presidency. President Cory Aquino and candidate Fidel V. Ramos of Lakas-NUCD graced Boking’s proclamation rally. At Boking’s miting de avance, it was candidate Ramon V. Mitra that anointed him as the main man in Mabalacat of the LDP.
Dr. Catalino Domingo of the NPC drubbed Boking mightily. Thereafter, Boking though has done more unprecedented things. Like five consecutive terms and still running.
Barangay chairmen are prized – and highly-priced – acquisitions in elections. But like the party, they are no foolproof certainty to winning.
In 2004, Andrea Dizon-Domingo thrice paraded before the members of media 28 of the 33 barangay chairmen of the City of San Fernando as her committed campaigners.
She ended third placer to eventual winner Oscar S. Rodriguez who had no barangay chairman other than Do Santos of San Agustin in his corner.
From organization, let’s shift to tactics.
The early bird does not always get the worm. Sometimes, because of his over-eagerness – read: gagad – he gets to be shot first.
Think Pampanga 1st district in1998 here. The first pretender to the throne being vacated by Cong Tarzan Lazatin was businessman Beko Panlilio. Ah, how the barangay captains swarmed around him from late 1996, only to lose them to “Cong Rey” Guiao, whose own campaign sputtered when Atty. Ed Pamintuan left the Angeles City hall for the district. Of course, it was Ed’s vice, Blueboy Nepomuceno who went on to win.
The early bird gets to be fed first to the hungry mob. Heed the Kapampangan adage here: Tauling kabit, manu. Last comes first.
Opinion polls are another matter to take real care of. Believe in published surveys at your own peril.
In 2007, an alleged survey allegedly commissioned by the provincial government alleged that Congressman Rey Aquino led Mayor Oscar Rodriguez 60-40 for the mayorship of the City of San Fernando.
So what’s new here? Oca never won in any published survey since he entered politics. Conversely, he has won all but one – 1992 – electoral contests he joined: 1987, 1995, 1998, 2001congressional races, and the 2004 mayorship.
And in 2007, Oca drubbed Rey to the tune of over 16,000-vote margin. Same margin of error placed in that alleged survey most certainly.
Like Oca, another one who never won in any survey but won all elections he entered is Cris Garbo of Mabalacat – as Mabalacat councilor twice, board member three times and vice mayor once. And board member again in 2007.
Surveys are meant to serve as campaign guideposts. Their efficacy for propaganda purposes – to gain some bandwagon effect – have long been lost because of surfeit and the incredibility of results.
Have you read of any published local survey citing its margin of error? If you have, did they tell you how they arrived at it?
End of lesson for now. Still want to run? More lessons next time. And it’s free.
To all of them, here are some lessons that may come in handy.
You have no money? Dream on running, even winning. It won’t cost you a thing. But never wake from that dream and live the nightmare of political realities here.
Even as a candidate, you have already been claimed by the voters to be their personal one-way ATM: no deposit required but ready to dispense cash anytime of the day or night: for their power and water bills, cost of hospitalization, expenses for weddings, baptisms and funerals, even birthday parties and fiestas, milk for their infants, tuition for their kids.
You have money? Use it wisely.
Yes, this is most relevant to the comebacking Dinan Labung. More than a year before the 2004 elections, then Board Member Dinan was already crowing that thirty grand – that’s 30 thousand pesos, dummy – was doled out daily to his needy constituents even before the cock crowed in the morning. Into the campaign period, Dinan upped the ante to 50 grand. Still, he ended up in the kangkungan against Dr. Rey Aquino.
His 2004 experience unlearned, Dinan did the same route in 2007 and found himself in the pansitan against Dong Gonzales.
A dilemma: Identified as a generous giver in elections past, Dinan stands to lose a lot of the ground he covered in 2004 and 2007 if he tightens even just a bit his publicly-perceived-as-enormous campaign chest. Dati kang nagbibigay ng tig-500 daan, bigla kang magbibigay ng tig-100, magiging masama ka pa sa iyong binigyan.
The flash of wealth is more a liability than an asset. Still remember Don Pepito Mercado? Soaring in the people’s imagination as a mighty, invincible eagle in 1994, reduced to a pitiful pipit in the 1995 gubernatorial polls.
While it pays to be the official candidate of a party, especially the party in power, this is no sure-fire guarantee for victory.
In 1992, Boking Morales did the unprecedented: He was the official candidate of the two dominant parties at war for the presidency. President Cory Aquino and candidate Fidel V. Ramos of Lakas-NUCD graced Boking’s proclamation rally. At Boking’s miting de avance, it was candidate Ramon V. Mitra that anointed him as the main man in Mabalacat of the LDP.
Dr. Catalino Domingo of the NPC drubbed Boking mightily. Thereafter, Boking though has done more unprecedented things. Like five consecutive terms and still running.
Barangay chairmen are prized – and highly-priced – acquisitions in elections. But like the party, they are no foolproof certainty to winning.
In 2004, Andrea Dizon-Domingo thrice paraded before the members of media 28 of the 33 barangay chairmen of the City of San Fernando as her committed campaigners.
She ended third placer to eventual winner Oscar S. Rodriguez who had no barangay chairman other than Do Santos of San Agustin in his corner.
From organization, let’s shift to tactics.
The early bird does not always get the worm. Sometimes, because of his over-eagerness – read: gagad – he gets to be shot first.
Think Pampanga 1st district in1998 here. The first pretender to the throne being vacated by Cong Tarzan Lazatin was businessman Beko Panlilio. Ah, how the barangay captains swarmed around him from late 1996, only to lose them to “Cong Rey” Guiao, whose own campaign sputtered when Atty. Ed Pamintuan left the Angeles City hall for the district. Of course, it was Ed’s vice, Blueboy Nepomuceno who went on to win.
The early bird gets to be fed first to the hungry mob. Heed the Kapampangan adage here: Tauling kabit, manu. Last comes first.
Opinion polls are another matter to take real care of. Believe in published surveys at your own peril.
In 2007, an alleged survey allegedly commissioned by the provincial government alleged that Congressman Rey Aquino led Mayor Oscar Rodriguez 60-40 for the mayorship of the City of San Fernando.
So what’s new here? Oca never won in any published survey since he entered politics. Conversely, he has won all but one – 1992 – electoral contests he joined: 1987, 1995, 1998, 2001congressional races, and the 2004 mayorship.
And in 2007, Oca drubbed Rey to the tune of over 16,000-vote margin. Same margin of error placed in that alleged survey most certainly.
Like Oca, another one who never won in any survey but won all elections he entered is Cris Garbo of Mabalacat – as Mabalacat councilor twice, board member three times and vice mayor once. And board member again in 2007.
Surveys are meant to serve as campaign guideposts. Their efficacy for propaganda purposes – to gain some bandwagon effect – have long been lost because of surfeit and the incredibility of results.
Have you read of any published local survey citing its margin of error? If you have, did they tell you how they arrived at it?
End of lesson for now. Still want to run? More lessons next time. And it’s free.
