REALITY IS both good news and bad news, it seems. The audience’s perspective is what ultimately matters. So, here we are, in the most bruising time of the pandemic, government economists telling us the good news: we’re out of the woods as far as recession is concerned.
No, we’re not , countered at least two former state economists, we’re still in the doldrum. Who’s to be believed then? One side must be telling the truth and one side is not. You may add politics in the mix, too, with the 2022 elections, or the political stumps, sneaking in some corners like vendors advertising their wares.
The official number is an 11.8 percent growth in the economy in the last quarter, the highest in the last three decades. What miracle has the present administration used with its magic wand to create an outstanding achievement like that?
No magic, according to Joyce Del Rosario, the resident economist and executive director of the Pampanga Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAMCHAM). It’s a technical thing, she says, government economists see what’s happening through the numbers they extrapolate. Three successive drop per quarter in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), she says, and the experts can see recession already in play. A reversal of the trend in the next quarter is a sign that recession is out. Voila, the economy is up and running again.
If it sounds complicated, blame in on the fact that economics is oftentimes called the dismal science, attributed to historian Thomas Carlyle in connection with the Malthusian theory that population growth could outstrip productivity which explains why some nations are rich or poor.
But we’re not out of the woods yet. In fact, we’re still deep in some dark and hard place in the forest, Del Rosario says. Her perspective is shared by no less than two former state economists, Solita Monsod and Cielito Habito, who, while not disputing whatever the numbers the economists on the other side have, maybe wrong in determining where we are at now, economics-wise. With the new lockdown in the National Capitol Region, the site and source of 50 percent of the country’s economic growth, economist should see a southward trend, not reaching for the North Star. In fact, the general opinion is a substantial drop in the Philippine economic growth.
Experts say there is something wrong with the way state economists compute it using the so-called base effects. Simply put, the formula is like a right minus wrong approach where the last bad numbers are subtracted from the recent good numbers and, lo and behold, the GDP is up again and we’re out of the messy hole.
It is not as simple as that on the ground.
The bottom line: numbers may not tell reality as it is, with more people losing their livelihood, jobs and incomes as lockdowns become the default strategy of government to prevent the virus, especially the Delta variant, from sneaking behind checkpoints. Apparently, the virus continues to infect a larger part of the country, inspite of or, even, because of. So those in business frown at the tendency to impose lockdowns in a heartbeat.
In Pampanga, business is still at a low level of activity because of the pandemic. It is more resilient than those in other parts of the country, Jess Nicdao, PAMCHAM chair,said optimistically. One thing that stymies it is the slow vaccination of business stakeholders.
“The provincial governor knows business is the backbone of our economy and he has coordinated with PAMCHAM for a faster vaccination of those in business, Nicdao said. Unfortunately, vaccine supply is the problem. The provincial government has ordered a substantial volume but is yet to come, he added.
Would the late Levy P. Laus, founder and former chairman emeritus of PAMCHAM, have made a difference. Neither Nicdao nor Del Rosario would make a comment either way, for understandable reason. But one source in the business sector said Laus would have made a positive effect.
“He always put PAMCHAM’s slogan in front of him — as catalyst in countryside business”. Apparently, Laus,who died in an helicopter crash two years, is even more missed now by his business colleagues because of a pro-active mindset against the backdrop of paralyzing effects of the pandemic. At one time, the source recalls, Laus had to literally twist Sen. Richard Gordon’s arm in a phone call to attend a PAMCHAM convention in the City Fernando so they could discuss a regional strategy for business. Gordon had only an hour or so to do it, and the source, was amazed how Laus talked Gordon into coming over in a jiffy.
Nicdao doesn’t see any change in both intention and commitment of the present leadership of PAMCHAM to prime countryside business, although he admits the Laus brand of leadership was a strength. When Laus was still around, PAMCHAM was adjudged the most active local chamber in the country.
Where does Nicdao see Pampanga business dealing with the recent rosy pronouncement on GDP as against the uproar from the other side? The local business’ resilience will see it through both good and bad news— along with the vaccines that the provincial government hopes will soon come to jab those under A4 category in the priority list, meaning employees.
“All new new news is old new” Malcolm Mcgueridge said. The bon mot, to which Nicdao can relate to as an old hand in countryside business as well as local politics (he once ran for vice governor under the late Bren Z. Guiao), might as well be a formula in looking at the ups and downs in the economy in good and bad times.
But surely, local business is missing Laus.
