DONG DRUBS OCA
January 3, 2013 – A prestigious Manila-based pollster has revealed an early trend in local politics with 3rd District Rep. Aurelio “Dong” Gonzales getting re-elected by a wide margin over his lone opponent, City of San Fernando Mayor Oscar “Oca” S. Rodriguez.
A total of 2,532 respondents in the third district were asked: If the elections were held today, who would you vote for?
The survey, conducted at the end of October last year, showed Gonzales chosen by 75 percent of the respondents. With Rodriguez barely getting 25 percent.
OCA OUTDOING DONG
March 5, 2013 – Don’t look now but the tables are turned, where the trend in the third congressional district race is concerned.
Mayor Oscar S. Rodriguez of this city outdid re-electionist Rep. Aurelio Gonzales Jr. in a survey conducted December 22-23 last year in the whole district.
Of the 3,154 respondents “representing a cross section of the population” of four towns and this city, 1,482 said they would vote for Rodriguez “if the elections were held today” or on the day the survey was conducted.
Gonzales was the choice of 1,303 respondents.
Three hundred sixty nine were undecided.
The numerical results translated to 47 percent for Rodriguez as against 41 percent for Gonzales with 12 percent undecided.
DONG KEEPS LEAD VS. OCA
April 3. 2013 – The latest survey made by a prestigious Manila-based pollster from March 2 to 12 for Pampanga’s third congressional district shows incumbent Congressman Aurelio “Dong” Gonzales maintaining his lead over his rival Mayor Oscar S. Rodriguez by a wide margin.
From a total of 2,535 individuals polled, some 1,600 or 64.23 percent went for Gonzales over Rodriguez’s 757 votes or 30.28 percent. One hundred thirty seven or 5.5 percent were undecided.
An initial survey made by the same group in October last year showed Gonzales way ahead of Rodriguez with a 75-25 percentage of the respondents respectively. However, the latest survey showed Rodriguez climbing to several notches even if Gonzales is still enjoying a formidable lead.
OCA UPS LEAD OVER DONG
April 4. 2013 – The latest survey in the third district shows Mayor Oscar Rodriguez increasing his lead over incumbent Rep. Aurelio Gonzales.
Rodriguez polled 57 percent to Gonzales’ 34 percent in the survey conducted from March 23-24 by the Asian Professional Enterprises and Consultancy Services (APECS).
The latest results showed showed an increase of 10 percent for Rodriguez and a decrease of 7 percent for Gonzales. A previous survey showed 47-34 percentage points in favour of the mayor.
OCA SURVEY ‘NOT CREDIBLE’
April 9, 2013 – The camp of re-electionist Congressman Aurelio”Dong” Gonzales Jr said the recent survey results released last week by the camp of Mayor Oscar S. Rodriguez was far from credible.
“In the first place, the firm that conducted the survey, Asian Professional Enterprises and Consultancy Services (APECS) appears to be non-existent, or if ever, is not duly registered and has no credible track record,” Ramon Navarra Jr, Gonzales’s chief of staff, said.
According to Navarra, a search on the pollster on the Internet revealed no such firm while another search in the website of the Securities and Exchange Commission showed that there was no company by that name registered in the agency.
“That really says a lot about the much-ballyhooed survey results released by Oca’s camp,” Navarra said.
I WROTE it before and I write it here again: Believe in published surveys at your own peril.
I wonder why Rodriguez is giving so much time on surveys now when surveys were not factored – at least publicly – in his past campaigns.
Until the 2004 elections where a late survey purported his then rival for the mayorship Rey Aquino up 60-40 over him, Rodriguez never won in any published survey since he entered politics. Conversely, he has won all but one – 1992 – electoral contests he joined: 1987, 1995, 1998, 2001congressional races, and the 2004 mayorship.
Like Rodriguez, another one who never won in any survey but won all elections he entered is Cris Garbo of Mabalacat – as Mabalacat councilor twice, board member three times and vice mayor once, and board member again.
Lesson: Surveys are meant to serve as campaign guideposts. Their efficacy for propaganda purposes – to gain some bandwagon effect – have long been lost because of surfeit and the incredibility of results.
So have you read of any published local survey citing its margin of error? If you have, did they tell you how they arrived at it?
