They were eyeball to eyeball, historians recalled, and the other side blinked.
It was October 1962 and the world stood on the brink of a possible war, even a nuclear conflict. The United States and the former Soviet Union were engaged in a test of will or nerve. The latter installed nuclear-armed missiles in Cuba, a 90-mile neighbor of the former.
US President John f. Kennedy would not be intimidated. He threatened to use military force,a naval blockade of Russians ships, to remove the ominous threat. Soviet Union President Nikita Kruschev balked but eventually agreed to remove the missiles after a long standoff.If the Americans would pledge not to invade Cuba in the future, the missiles will go. The US agreed and, in addition, also secretly removed its military base in Turkey.
The crisis was defused and the world was safe again.
Fast forward 61 years later in Asia. This September, in a mini version of the missile crisis, China installed a 300-meter rope of floaters or buoys in the West Philippine Sea to block Filipino fishermen from entering the Scarborough shoal, a traditional rich fishing ground. The shoal is part of 90 percent of the WPS or South China Sea which China claims to own under its fictional nine –dash line version , and lately a ten -dash line.
In 2016, the Arbitral Tribunal declared China’s claim baseless and illegal. Instead, it awarded the Philippines’ claim over it. China has since ignored the court’s ruling, defied it, in fact by reclaiming parts of it and building military bases on them. It also continued an unbridledexpansive activities in the WPS. The placing of the string of floaters is the most recent, and a political dunk.
President Bongbong has vowed that not inch will be given away under his watch.He sounded loud and clear, despite China’s aggressive tactics in the WPS. The water cannon firing at motorized boats deputized by the Philippine government to continually resupply its Marine troops at an abandoned ship at Ayungin Shoal, another territory claimed by China, is part of the bullying in the sea.
China got what is was asking for.
All it took was a little bit more of courage than his predecessor, former President Duterte showed, or the lack of it, for President Bongbong to prove before the whole world that he meant business when he vowed the Philippine territory or its valid claim in the West Philippine Sea remain intact.
The President gave a more muscular and decisive order that a rope of floaters installed by China in the WPS be dismantled. The order was immediately executed without hassle by the Philippine Coast Guard. Chinese authorities have, in response warned the Philippines that it causing problems in the WPS by removing the barriers “ without permission”, from China..
The scuttling of the Chinese floaters also, once and for all, demolished the naïve argument by no less than Sen. Robin Padilla that China is not responsible for the escalation of conflict in the WPS. The neophyte senator has not responded to some calls that he resigns his post on account of his favorable comment on China’s aggressive moves in the WPS. The latest word is that the actor-turned senator has issued a cop-out: everyone should shut up on the WPS dispute, except PBBM.
What step China will take next after the Philippines’ bolder, braver posture in the WPS remains to be seen. There is no doubt, the policy under PBBM is no longer as sanguine, thankfully, as it used to be under the previous administration. Even giants understand the value of caution, like the US and Russia did during the Cuban missile crisis. China’s next moves will be probably- hopefully= be done in the same manner. Raising the ante in the WPS or SCS can only lead to something more serious.
To be sure, China has not given up its long-time position that Taiwan is part of the mainland. Under President Xi Jinping, China’s plan is to invade the tiny island in 1927 or thereabout. Taiwan, with the aid of the US, has taken notice. To be forwarned. is to be forearmed.
There are other things to consider. The US has increased the number of its bases in the Philippines. More are reportedly in the drawing board. Whether it’s about Taiwan or about the WPS or SCS, China knows the implication of more US bases nearby. It’s not just for deterrence; it’s a threat as uncomfortable as the missiles in Cuba.
China’s economy is in trouble a. And this, according to analysts, may impact its plan, present and future, in the region. The US has also expanded its alliance with other countries like Japan and Australia as countermeasure to China’s hegemonic moves. On the other hand, some analysts, believe that China may not alter its plan under Xi , notwithstanding its economic problem or the growing US alliance .
Is China big enough and strong enough to start a war now against the West and win it? The Ukraine war is instructive. Russia, which is six times bigger, was expected to defeat its neighbor quickly when it invaded the neighbor last year. More than a year after it invaded Ukraine, Russia finds itself being at the receiving end of a counteroffensive that is closer to Kremlin than it has ever been. Ukraine is in it to win it. Thanks to the logistics and moral support of Ukraine’s allies, the US and NATO countries, principally. For China, Ukraine should be a cautionary tale.
The David versus Goliath conflict is making smaller countries realistic now when faced with the existential challenge from bullies using might-is-right as a policy. Size is now relative. PBBM must have been emboldened by this new concept. His expanding alliance for a joint patrol arrangement in the WPS with the US, Japan and Australia makes practical sense.
In other words, it’s a braver position to counter any Chinese aggressive move more effectively in the WPS.
