THIS IS not about that unknown, thus X, element that makes one beauty stand out among a bevy of beauties, as in those Miss Whatever pageants or in modelling.
It’s all about the ex – as in erstwhile, former, once, onetime, past – elective officials seeking to regain lost political glory. Or how their past factors in their present quests. To the point: Does being an ex-mayor or ex-governor or ex-congressman or ex-whatever positively matter in elections?
The thought struck me seeing so many exes in Pampanga – maybe, even elsewhere — running anew in the May 9 polls, even for the mayoralty alone.
In the 1st District, there’s Malou Paras-Lacson in Magalang, and Boking Morales in Mabalacat City.
In the 2nd District, Carling de La Cruz in Porac, Art Salalila in Sta. Rita, Eddie Guerrero in Floridablanca, and once ALE Partylist Rep. Lina Cabrera in Sasmuan.
In the 3rd District, Chito Espino in Arayat, and Oscar Rodriguez in the City of San Fernando.
In the 4th District, Annette Flores-Balgan in Macabebe, Leonora Wong in San Simon, and Johnny Sambo in Sto. Tomas.
While sharing commonality in being exes, peculiarity obtains in their individual situations.
Two are in for return bouts with their nemeses in the 2019 elections – Paras-Lacson versus incumbent Romy Pecson who beat her by 27 votes; Sambo against incumbent Gloria “Ninang” Ronquillo.
Two were three-term mayors now incumbent vice mayors: Wong wanting to dislodge the once-suspended Abundio “JP” Punsalan; Flores-Balgan in sibling rivalry with elder brother Leonardo “Bobong” Flores.
Four are coming from loses in previous attempts: Guerrero who also lost in the vice mayoralty race right after his third term and in 2019 against incumbent Darwin Manalansan; Espino against now term-ending Bon Alejandrino; and Salalila against brother Dagi, the incumbent; Cabrera against incumbent Nardo Velasco.
From a one-term hiatus, three termer De la Cruz now challenges reelectionist Jing Capil. Unable to recall a similar situation in past elections, a victory for the former will be a precedent of sorts here.
Rodriguez is on a different level altogether: congressional winner in his first electoral foray in 1987, losing to Didi Domingo in 1992, winning over her in 1995, reelected in 1998 and 2001, winning the San Fernando mayoralty in 2004, 2007, and 2010, returning to Congress in 2013, losing his seat to Dong Gonzales in 2016, thought to have retired thereafter, beat the deadline for COC filing last year.
Morales is sui generis in politics: vice mayor in 1988, losing in his first try for the mayoralty in 1992, winning in 1995, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, and 2016 but unseated by the Comelec in 2017 for violation of the three-term limit – all of 16 years after the fact.
The once-forever mayor ran for vice mayor in 2019 but lost – miserably – to his nephew Geld Aquino.
Now we go ex-factoring.
Nung anyang macalucluc ya milucas ya salol, ngeni pang yang managalan? (He lost when he was incumbent, how can he possibly win now that he is the challenger? – no direct translation of a rather picturesque Capampangan idiomatic expression there).
Apparently unapplicable to immediate return bouts, to wit:
Candaba Mayor Rene Maglanque lost to neophyte Danilo Baylon in 2016, but beat him in 2019.
Incumbent Mayor Pecson lost to Paras-Lacson in 2016 and beat her in 2019. She is out to return the favor this May. An interesting fight if only for the degla. In Sambo versus Ronquillo too.
While a single loss proximate to end-term seems survivable, multiple ones are veritably insurmountable – Espino, Salalila, Cabrera – most especially those who went below their incumbent status and still lost, thus: Vice mayor namu mesambut cayu, qng panga-mayor nanu pang pag-asa yu? (You lost for vice mayor, what hope have you to win for mayor?) – Morales, Guerrero. Here is where the ex is hexed.
A case in reverse is that of Flores-Balgan and Wong – undefeated in three successive mayoralty runs, sitting vice mayors now. There is hardly any reference from their constituencies of their being ex. The mayoralty viewed as mere resumption of duty after the breather that is the vice mayoralty. This we have to see.
Ex-three termers who lost in even but a single comeback bid who run anew face overwhelming odds, not the least the ridicule of their constituents: Bisa ca pa? E ca pa sinawa? Nanung e mu alacuan quen? (You still want (the position)? Aren’t you sated yet? What can’t you leave there? – direct translations now). Yo, Guerrero! Yo, Espino! Yo, Morales!
How about Rodriguez?
The ex factor stacks up in Mang Oca’s favor – street parliamentarian, human rights lawyer, a pillar in legislation, brilliant prosecutor in the Estrada impeachment trial, father of San Fernando cityhood, World City Mayor Awardee, etcetera. Think gravitas and not one of his rivals even comes close, dare I say. And no apologies there. How all this stands against the factor of age, is all up to the electorate.
Given the magnificence of his exes, were Mang Oca now imbued with the X factor – that “variable in a given situation that could have the most significant impact on the outcome…”
No fearless forecasts here, only random ruminations of an armchair theorist. Chillax.
