CITY OF SAN FERNANDO – For the first time in a decade, the Philippine’s pork production may see a decline, historical records from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) showed that pork production in the Philippines has not registered a decline in the last 10 years. But the country’s pork output this year may fall to a five-year low of 1.475 million metric tons (MMT) due to African swine fever (ASF), which is fatal to hogs, according to a report from the USDA.
Reports also indicate that the USDA raised its pork production estimates for the Philippines by five percent from its December forecast but the figure is still 10 percent lower than the estimated output of 1.64 MMT for 2019.
“Higher-than-expected hog supplies and fewer disease impacts boost 2020 production by 5 percent from the previous estimate, but production is forecast to fall 10 percent yearover- year due to ASF impacts,” said the USDA report, entitled “Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade.”
The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade is a quarterly report which includes data on U.S. and global trade, production, consumption and stocks, as well as analysis of developments affecting world trade in livestock and poultry. It covers beef and veal, cattle, pork, swine, chicken meat, and turkey meat.
The USDA data showed that the country’s pork output has been growing steadily since 2009, when total production expanded by 1.17 percent to 1.295 MMT, from 1.280 MMT in 2008.
For 2019, the USDA estimated that the Philippine pork production went up to 1.64 MMT, from 1.6 MMT despite the detrimental eff ects of the confi rmation of ASF outbreaks in Luzon.
“ASF has not spread as quickly as previously anticipated, resulting in a lower-than-expected herd liquidation,” the report said.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that the country’s hog output has been increasing from 1.877 MMT in 2009 to 2.417 MMT in 2018.
The country’s hog output from January to September managed to expand by 2.54 percent to nearly 1.7 MMT, from 1.657 MMT in the same period of 2018, PSA data showed despite the ASF outbreaks last year.
Meanwhile, the USDA projected that the country’s total pork consumption this year would decline to 1.775 MMT from 1.879 MMT recorded last year, as consumers are expected to shift to other protein sources due to the ASF scare.
The USDA also estimated that total pork imports this year would reach an all-time high of 300,000 MT to plug the shortfall in domestic production.
