But most of the predicted weather disturbances would not make land fall, said Dr. Esperanza Cayanan, PAGASA’s weather division chief.
This is due to the growing number of thunderstorms in Mindanao where many areas have begun to emerge out of a severe dry spell caused by the “El Nino” weather phenomenon, she explained.
The colder temperature developing in these places could push away or re-direct the oncoming storms generated by the Pacific Ocean’s warm water to the North-Eastern direction of the Pacific, she said.
However, fewer but stronger typhoons could batter and spawn destruction on the north-western direction of the archipelago in the last quarter of the year, Cayanan pointed out during the media forum “Inn the News” held at the Rodizio Restaurant of the Holiday Inn Resort here last Friday hosted by the Capampangan in Media, Inc. (CAMI) in partnership with the Clark Development Corp. (CDC), Social Security System (SSS) and Holiday Inn.
UFOs
The forum was also attended by PAGASA’s astronomer, Jose Mendoza IV, who noted an increase in the number of reported sightings of “unknown” flying objects – or unidentified flying objects (UFOs) – in the country in the last few years.
Mendoza said of these sightings, the ratio of “unexplained” rose to 15 percent from the previous average of 10 percent — meaning only 85 percent of the recent sightings could be explained scientifically.
In previous years, 90 percent of reported UFO sightings were attributed to natural phenomena and other verifiable data, he said.
M e a n w h i l e , Cayanan said the number of typhoons that could hit the Philippines this year would continue to average 20, “but what we should look out for is the increased volume of water carried by these storms, as well as the strength or intensity of the wind that they pack.”
To help the public understand the strength of oncoming storms and guide them in their preparation, Cayanan said PAGASA has adopted five new typhoon categories.
Thus, when it describes a brewing storm as a tropical depression, this means the weather disturbance is packing a 61-kilometer per hour wind; a tropical storm, 62-88-km/hr wind; severe tropical storm, 89-117-km/hr wind; typhoon, 118-220-km/hr. wind, and super typhoon, which packs a 220-pluskm/ hr. wind.
5 signals
In its weather update, PAGASA will also use five signals to describe the speed or rate of arrival of a storm: Signal 1 means a storm is moving by at least 60 kilometers per hour and should hit an area in 36 hours or so; signal 2 – 61-120- km/hr. in 24 hours; signal 3 – 121-170-km/hr. in 18 hours; signal 4 – 171- 220-km/hr. in 12 hours and signal 5 – greater than 220-km/hr. in 12 hours or less.
She acknowledged that the current global weather pattern marked by intensified rain-andsnowstorms may have stemmed from the “climate change” that some climatologists blamed on the burning of fossil fuels and other gases that block earth-generated heat to escape into space.
Cayanan said there is still a great global debate on this issue, with “climate change” theory non-believers arguing that the changing weather pattern merely reflects the century-long natural weather changes on earth.
At the moment, Cayanan said, PAGASA’s priority is the completion of its modernization program topped by the deployment of more Doppler radar units in strategic areas in a bid to enhance the reliability of its weather tracking, and reporting, capability.
