Noting that the West Valley fault could trigger an earthquake that could paralyze the metropolis, Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) Director Renato Solidum stressed that Pampanga, with its international airport here, could “play a big role” in disaster and relief operations.
“I don’t think an earthquake in Metro Manila would greatly affect Pampanga. Pampanga and other provinces can play a big part in response to an earthquake in Metro Manila,” he said, noting that the West Valley fault also runs through part of Bulacan through Metro Manila and Rizal towards Laguna.
“There’s no fault mapped in Pampanga,” Solidum said, noting that even the Zambales fault also skirts Pampanga as it runs through Bamban, Tarlac.
Solidum noted a study it conducted with the Japan International Coordination Agency (JICA) estimating as many as 33,500 people could die in a significant earthquake in Metro Manila, and another study with the Australian government estimating fatalities at 31,000. “Fatalities would correspond with the buildings that are likely to collapse,” he added.
He cited estimates that replacing Metro Manila buildings that could collapse in a big earthquake would cost P2.3 trillion, excluding cost of infrastructure and the resulting adverse impact on the economy.
Apart from preparing Pampanga and other safe provinces for emergency operations for Metro Manila folk, Solidum also urged decentralization of the country’s capital.
“We have put all our eggs in the Metro Manila basket,” he said.
Solidum noted, however, that the government has taken steps in preparation for such possible earthquake scenario in the metropolis.
He said four major zones in Metro Manila could be isolated by a big earthquake and that already, the government has assigned military units and other government agencies to be in charge of emergency operations in each of the zone.
“Metro Manila may be separated into four isolated zones based on geography. Collapsed buildings in Makati and Mandaluyong cities as well as the Pasig River may separate northern and southern parts of the metropolis, while broken road networks will isolate the west and east of the capital,” he added.
Solidum explained that a movement in the West Valley fault that could generate a 7.2-magnitude earthquake, runs north to south along the west and east edges of the Marikina Valley and poses the greatest threat to Metro Manila.
In a forum in 2013 in this freeport, the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and its corporate social responsibility arm Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) urged Filipinos to prepare for the effects of climate change that could make Angeles CIty, 170 feet above vsea level, the host of migrants surrounding prone-flood towns in the near future.
The WWF stayed for some time in Angeles to help map out a “climate- defined” future for local business amid climate change that has made unusual weather worldwide the new “normal.”
Jose Ma. Lorenzon Tan, chief executive officer of the WWF Philippines, said that climate change and worsening floods could eventually drive folk in low-lying towns in Luzon to migrate to Angeles.
“Is Angeles prepared for that scenario?” he asked during WWF’s third and last phase of “business risk assessment and the management of climate change impacts project” that covered 14 cities in the country.
Tan noted that “Angeles is not flood prone, but the United Nations has projected that the impact of climate change would not be so much marginalization as migration.”
He noted that the WWF study conducted in Angeles drew up opportunities for the city to cope with the adverse effects of climate change in the next 20 to 30 years.
A UN study has estimated that over one billion would be forced to leave their communities because of worsening floods arising from climate change. In Asia, the estimate is about 400 million.
