Talk is cheap.
As far as China is concerned vis-à-vis the West Philippine Sea , President Bong Bong Marcos may have felt enough is enough. China has made up its mind with the nine-dash-line, even a ten. There’s no point in more talks.
Besides, as the late Henry Kissinger wrote in his book, World Order, it would be hard to convince China on a rules-based order in the world. In the first place, it wasn’t a participant in making those rules. The logic is obvious.
The nine-dash line trumps that order as China keeps violating the speed bumps to assert its right in the WPS. No ifs nor buts. The legend or myth is unassailable. There is a bragging right mandate from heaven, and that’s it. In the second place, might is always right for the new hegemon.
PBBM must have realized that diplomacy is not a game for the dumb. You can play the game at first but eventually you’ll be found out,get exposed and some people get hurt or lose their thumb. Sovereignty is not a matter of losing one’s thumb or giving it away. It hurts more than the national pride . Surely, not giving away an inch of territory in the WPS is worth more than soldier’s digit.
When former president Duterte said he will not risk going to war with China, he feared many of his soldiers will lose their thumbs in the process, or more. He was given a thumbs-up approval by many Filipinos for that honest and caring decision. You can’t blame China for being more aggressive in the WPS after that mouthful, or a foot in the mouth comment.
So, PBBM’s new tack or new paradigm must be less for more. Less talks but more acceptable results. Diplomacy is not an insanity game, which like a dumb’s game. You keep doing the same thing all over again and expect different results.
We have yet to see what he meant specifically with more. It cannot be more foreign troops on Philippine shore. In a way, China is acting the way it is ,not because it’s been robbed of something in the WPS, but because more US soldiers and materiel are on Philippine shore more than the average Filipino knows .
It is not about not announcing anymore when the resupply missions for the Marines at the rusting BRP Sierra Madre in the Ayungin Shoal will be scheduled. That is equivalent to telegraphing the country’s defense move. Let the other side guess and be surprised. Another version of playing it like dumb, China is not,according to Duterte who once bragged about the Chinese intelligence and friendliness.
The Chinese know how to count, if they did not invent it. There was a time prior to the WPS issue when there was not a college graduate among members of the Chinese Communist Party, according Kissinger. Times have changed. Members of the Politburo are legit grads now. Some may have earned their Latin honors, who knows.
It stands to reason that PBBM plays it more intelligently now. In PBBM’s father’s time, PH was probably ahead in the game. PBbMS’s father even used the charm offensive of the then First Lady to win the late Mao in the diplomatic front. Unfortunately, Mao is dead and the former First Lady may not be as effective today.
But China’s invincible myth still governs its leaders ‘ mind. In Mao’s time, the legendary leader’s belief was that if a nuclear war happens, China will survive it because of two reasons: bigger population and hard culture. Mao even predicted that there would be one Chinese for every three persons in the world.
The Chinese, however, are no longer as prolific. More Chinese are now encouraged to bear more children to counter the aging population. President XI Jing Ping will not live forever even if he has been given a lifetime term.
At this point, PBBM is presumably skillfully better to to manage China’s aggressiveness in the WPS . His mindset to do more in that in regard isn’t just a statement of confidence. The US government has repeatedly assured its ironclad commitment to its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines. Does it mean no more goodbye to soldiers’ thumb in the WPS?
Nor it’s not just calculated bravado. It’s an election season in the US . Historically, it would be foolhardy for China to ignite American patriotism at this point. It is also the reason PBBM might feel he has its nerves in the right place to urge to do more to stand up against the aggression in the WPS.
Broadly, the latent view that PBBM will see through the WSP problem in his term is being tested by a new political development apparently meant to intimidate his leadership. He has four more years, more or less, to go, and there are no signs that there will be a threat to that leadership. The opposition, for all intent and purposes, can wait.
After the US election,whoever wins between President Biden or Donald Trump . PBBM may emerge stronger than before and restoring the Marcos reputation, perhaps even wealth, will be ultimately achieved. There is no doubt that China’s belligerence in the WSP and the realignment of western countries like the US, Australia, France, Canada and others against it have uniquely improved PBBM’s stature in the international scene.
Translating his international success in the improving the life of Filipinos
Is another thing. But there’s great hope, as always, that lies ahead.
