CITY OF SAN FERNANDO —Vice-President Leni Robredo emerged, for the third time, as the most preferred presidential bet for the May 9 elections in the Feb. 3 – 8 survey conducted by independent pollster Solidarity Against Fraudulent Elections (SAFE) 2022-Philippines held in the province’s capital with 190,056 total registered voters.
SAFE 2022-Philippines is a vigilant voters’ rights organization around the countryside — independent, non-stock, non-profit, research and think tank institute— that does both public and private surveys, and consultancy services in politics and business. It accepts research commissions from politicians and businessmen provided the work is non-exclusive and the survey data are kept in its archives and ultimately open for public use.
The survey with more than 10 percent of the total registered voters or equivalent to a total of 19,068 respondents were particularly asked: “On the basis of good governance, whom would you vote for on this list as President, Governor, and City Mayor if the May 09, 2022 elections were to take place today, and Why?” Covid-19 response, integrity, proven leadership, experience, and achievements have been the prominent issues for candidates.
In the survey results it found 41.2% of Fernandinos expressing preference for the presidential bid of Robredo. Coming in second, by a wide margin, was former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos who garnered 23.8%. Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso was third, with 14.1%. Sen. Panfilo “Ping” Lacson came in fourth with 8.4%, Sen. Emmanuel “Manny Pacman” Pacquiao took 7.68%. The undecided stood at 4.68%.
Robredo visited Pampanga four times in January and February alone during the ribbon cutting of campaign headquarters in this city; distribution of antigen kits in the Angeles City with Mayor Carmelo “Pogi” Lazatin Jr.; Clark Freeport visit and campus visit for the students, alumni and school personnel of Chevalier School, and Holy Family Academy held at Systems Plus College in Balibago, Angeles City. She was also the guest of honor and speaker in the recently held Ten Outstanding Fernandinos Awarding Ceremony.
Former mayor/congressman and mayoral candidate Oscar “Oca” Rodriguez threw his support behind Robredo — women’s rights champion and the only female aspirant in the heated 2022 presidential race. Rodriguez praised Robredo for showing how leaders can perform their duties with “integrity, efficiency, and compassion.”
Earlier, Robredo also emerged as the top pick among the presidential candidates in two separate surveys with 41%, according to Data Analysis & Research for Elections (D.A.R.E.) Survey conducted on Dec. 27-31, 2021 to Jan. 3-7, 2022 held in Angeles City, and the other on Jan. 29 to Feb. 5, 2022 held in the City of San Fernando by the Voice Newsweekly Online Presidential Survey where Robredo gained 65.75% followed by Marcos with 26.06%. Robredo’s stellar performance in the presidential fora, debates, interviews, Covid and rapid disaster response added to the momentum and massive rallies that have come out for her during the first week of the official campaign.
Delta gets 80.5%
At the provincial level, reelectionist Gov. Dennis “Delta” Pineda is leading with 80.5%, compared to 14.49% obtained by his lone rival Danilo Baylon. The undecided stood at 4.98%.
Reelectionist Vice Gov. Lilia “Nanay Baby” Pineda, running unopposed, obtained 99% Voters’ Level of Confidence.
Pineda gained 80.43% in the Voice Newsweekly Online Survey, while Baylon garnered 19.57%.
Oca leads at 25.34%
The leading choices in the city mayoral race were former and incumbent candidates in different positions. Former congressman and mayor Oca Rodriguez topped the survey with 25.34% amid his late filing of Certificate of Candidacy (COC) on Nov. 15, 2021.
ABC president and Barangay Dolores chair Vilma Caluag came second with 19.79%, followed by incumbent Vice Mayor Jimmy Lazatin with 18.63%, and Pampanga 3rd District board member Rosve Henson with 15.41%. Sandy Quiwa was last with 3.84%. The undecided had a “significant response” rate of 16.95%.
Rodriguez also topped the Voice Newsweekly Online Survey with 59.93% followed by Henson with 38.55%, Lazatin with 0.73%, Quiwa with 0.45%, and Caluag with 0.34%.
Bases for respondents’ preferences
Among the city mayoralty bets, here are the bases for the respondents’ choices:
Rodriguez – name recall, world class city mayor, father of San Fernando cityhood, scholarship programs, local and international awardee based on good governance, encourages multi-sectoral / people’s participation in governance, Covid response, free legal assistance, livelihood/employment programs, solid waste segregation and management, disaster mitigation and management, traffic management, infrastructural development, from womb to tomb programs, human rights advocate, integrity, visibility, principled, staunch supporter of Vice-President Robredo’s presidential bid.
Caluag – popularity in Tiktok and other social media platforms, health services, scholarship programs, affiliation in various organizations, Covid “ayuda”, name recall, supporter of gubernatorial candidate Baylon.
Lazatin – name recall, emergency response, scholarship programs, arts and culture, visibility, Covid response, supporter of presidentiable Manila Mayor Moreno;
Henson – Covid response, livelihood projects, medical assistance, visibility, closely identified with Gov. Delta Pineda.
Quiwa – name recall.
Mechanics & Criteria
The latest SAFE 2022 Philippines survey was conducted by five teams with interactive methodology or face-to-face interviews of respondents identified in random streets of the total 35 barangays amid the decline of Covid-19 cases. It had interviewed 19,068 respondents (more than 10 percent of the 190,056 total registered voters), 18 years old – above, and City of San Fernando registered voters and residents. It has an error margin ranging from +/ 1.13 % to +/- 2.26%.
Findings in the Feb. 3-8, 2022 Pre-Campaign / Campaign Period
“Command voting” is limited: Of every five voters, four say ―most people here decide by themselves who to vote for amidst the emergence of multi-sectoral groups in the barangays, and only one says that ―most people here are just told by the local leaders whom to vote for.
“Social interest dominates over personal interest”: Of every five voters, four say ―I will vote for a candidate if most people will benefit from him/her even if personally I will not, and only one says that ―I will vote for a candidate if I will benefit personally from him/her even if most people will not.
“Voters take time to study their choices”: In a survey done more than 60 days after the substitution deadline in the filing of the Certificate of Candidacy on Nov. 15, 2021, 56% said they had made their choices for at least a week ago, 20% said they had made their choices in the last two weeks, and 24% said they had only just made their choices early February.
“Independent influences dominate over partisan influences on votes”: 54% said that their votes were a personal decision, and 5% said that they were influenced by family relations, friends, or their school. Only 21% said their votes were influenced by partisan sources, which include opposition candidates (7%), administration candidates (5%), media advertisements (4%), local officials or candidates (2%), independent candidates (1%), and religious groups (1%).
“Voting intentions are relatively stable”: Only 27% said that they might change their votes from what they told the survey pollster earlier in the interview; 53% said their voting decision was definite, and 20% called it already probable.
