So far, China is going by the book by one of its own.
In his book “The Art of War, Sun Tzu, a famous Chinese general, military strategist, philosopher and writer, scribed that winning without fighting is the supreme strategy. He also cautioned against taking the next option without taking other things in consideration.
And the world is safer for it. Thus far.
The truth is, try as might, China can’t seem to get along a rules-based international order, the so-called Westphalian structure for two reasons: its ideology, and most importantly, because it never had a part in crafting such a system but is required to be responsible to make it work.
So, there is an inevitable tension between the West, primarily the United States, and
China.
In his book, World Order, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger explained the reason for the tension.“China rejects the proposition that international order is fostered by the spread of liberal democracy and that the international order has the obligation to bringing this about,” he noted. In addition, he added, both sides have opposite views on the importance of sovereignty .and human rights.
Under this political rubric, the dispute in the South China Sea has emerged.
China has recently asserted its continuing claim on most parts of the South China Sea by insisting on its self-serving nine-dash line theory, lately revised to a ten-dash line, by installing a 300-meter rope of floaters or buoys in the Scarborough Shoal.
The shoal is right within the West Philippine Sea, our version of SCS, based on the ruling given by the Arbitral Tribunal in 2016 during the time of the late President Noynoy Aquino. It used to be a rich fishing ground for Filipino fisherfolk until China occupied it with its Coast Guard ships and militia men guarding it.
Filipino fishermen, mostly from Zambales, have since complained of losing about 70 per cent of what they used to catch from the traditional fishing as a result of Chinese occupation. The push came to shove when China put up the floaters. The floaters were meant to stop Filipino fishermen from entering the shoal.
Rather than making another protest to this latest violation of Philippine sovereignty, given China’s inaction on previous violations that were mostly ignored, the Philippines decided to remove the floaters through its Coast Guard. China later claimed the floaters were actually removed by its Coast Guard. Yes and no.
There are two sides to the story. It was the Philippine Coast Guard who cut the long rope that strung the floaters together and hauled up the steel anchor which was then brought to its headquarters as proof of mission accomplished. It is a mystery that China or its Coast Guard allowed this to happen without warning, given its ubiquitous presence in the area. It is also true that it was the Chinese Coast Guard who collected the dismantled floaters. Why the Philippine Coast Guard did not do it instead , and just settled for a limited objective ,remains unanswered
Something worse could have happened if plans had been different. Looking back, at the very least, cooler or cautious minds must have prevailed, the doves over the hawks on both sides. China, despite being touted as a global superpower, isn’t in the best position to start a war in the region. Neither is the Philippines, despite its mutual defense treaty with the US and its alliances with other Western countries.
Notwithstanding the bolder action by the Philippines, Filipino fishermen are still fearful to enter and fish in the shoal because of the intimidating presence of the Chinese Coast Guard and militia vessels in the shoal. The Philippines, which has been lauded by its allies for its bolder move, has yet to make another brave one to ensure that its fishermen can have unbridled access again to the fishing goldmine.
Meantime, China continues with its non-fighting but winning posture in asserting its claim over the SCS or WPS by ramping up its propaganda campaign using Chinese and non-Chinese spokesmen to spread its version of truth or lies , as the case maybe, in the ongoing sea dispute. Already, there are Filipinos both in government and the private sector believed to be part of this relentless campaign. They are dubbed as trolls or, worse, traitors.
The idea behind the campaign is partly aimed at polarizing Filipinos and the world in the sea dispute between China and the Philippines. It appears to be an effective strategy to carry out Sun Tzu’s advice. Whether that is responsible for the double digit drop in the popularity of President Bongbong Marcos cannot be ascertained yet. Surely, other adverse factors, such as the rice price cap order by the President, can be linked to it.
China must be aware of the Filipinos’ vulnerability to social media campaign. The recent presidential election is believed by many to have hugely been influenced by one major candidate using paid trolls to promote issues in his favor, including a subtle revision of history. China’s mind game tactic or psywar may have also affected local politics. There are palpable indications that it so.
To pursue Sun Tzu’s strategy requires patience. China appears to possess the mental stamina, the so-called Middle Kingdom mentality, to do it. In his book, “When China Rules The World”, Martin Jacques predicted that China will continue to change the world on its own terms. “The fact that China is so huge means that it exercises a gravitational pull on every other nation,” he wrote.
So far, the growing alliance of the US with other democratic countries is a visible response , albeit in the opposite direction, to that prediction. This emboldens the Philippines to make a firm and stronger stand against China’s aggressive pushing of its weight in the SCS. Somehow, it also makes Sun Tzu’s playbook practically preferable by China, given all considerations.
So far.
