ANGELES CITY — The mayoralty election here has suddenly become a toss-up between Alex Cauguiran and Carmelo “Pogi” Lazatin, Jr. with barely three days before the elections.
Citing what she said was “the latest poll survey,” the Kambilan Party spokesperson claimed Cauguiran and Lazatin Jr. are “statistically tied.”
“Cauguiran got 35 percent of the votes in the latest poll dated April 20 and 21, Lazatin at 37 percent while Vice Mayor Bryan Nepomuceno slid down to 24 percent, and undecided voters are at four percent. From a statistician’s point of view, the two top candidates are statistically tied,” disclosed spox Irene Mae Manabat.
Manabat is an academic researcher by profession and a holder of a doctorate degree in Business Management from the Systems Plus College Foundation.
“Lazatin’s votes are in a plateau, so the rise or fall (of his votes) are negligible. Nepomuceno is on an irreversible downward trajectory, while Cauguiran, most probably, will rake in the undecided voters while solidifying his loyal forces in the endgame,” Manabat said.
The poll result showed Cauguiran ranked first in 13 barangays. The survey has a margin of error of 1.8 percent and conducted in 33 barangays with 3,000 random respondents proportional to voters per barangay.
Manabat said the surveyors ensured a random method in a community with household intervals of at least seven houses where the question asked was: “Kung ikaw ay boboto sa darating na Mayo 13, sino ang pipiliin mong Mayor?”
In a previous poll conducted from December 12 to 14, 2018, Nepomuceno was at the top at 39 percent, Lazatin at 31 percent and Cauguiran at merely eight percent.
Nepo cascading
In his column at Sun Star Pampanga last February 2, veteran journalist Max Sangil referred to a January 2019 survey and said among the three mayoral candidates, “the fastest gainer is Cauguiran who jumped from a measly eight percent and now 27 percent. Lazatin is static at 31 percent (whereas) Nepomuceno who, late last year was more than 50 percent, cascaded to 39 percent.”
Sangil also mentioned “an independent group commissioned by a sportsman-businessman” as surveyors.
From the results of another survey conducted on February 2 to 5 in the city’s 33 barangays, Nepomuceno still had the upper hand at 34.29 percent (2,160 votes), Lazatin at 32.71 percent (2,061 votes) while Cauguiran was able to catch up at 32.03 percent (2,018 votes), while the undecided was surveyed at 1 percent (61 votes), Manabat said.
The local Commission on Election office recently pegged the number of registered voters in Angeles City at 199,007.
City hall officials, who requested anonymity for fear of reprisal, point to the dip of Nepomuceno’s survey performance due to the controversial issue of a P1.5 billion loan from the Development Bank of the Philippines, the corresponding ordinances of which were approved by the vice mayor as head of the sangguniang panlungsod along with Councilor Lazatin.
Loan issue
Cauguiran earlier exposed and criticized this loan in his campaign sorties saying they were used to build a new city hall building and sports complex instead of improving the facilities and services of the city’s public hospital and college.
“Cauguiran’s awareness and acceptance (level) among voters rose also because of this (loan issue). Voters saw through his opponents who, instead of prioritizing funding for public health care and quality education, entered into an irregular loan agreement, and thus showed poorly in the surveys. They (Nepomuceno and Lazatin) never recovered from the public backlash of what they did,” Manabat said.
“Cauguiran’s jump from a measly eight percent in February to the current 35 percent is indicative of the voters’ appreciation to a new style of leadership at the local government unit especially when the city is faced with huge challenges as a primary city amid the Greater Clark Area’s continued progress,” the party spokesperson said.
“The first step in changing the political landscape of the city from the dominance of traditional, wealthy families, to a city that is truly responsive to the needs of the ordinary Angeleño, is to catapult to power someone whose strong managerial leadership has been tested for decades,” she added.
Cauguiran is running under the 34,000-strong Kambilan Da Reng Abe Party affiliated with incumbent Pampanga Governor Lilia G. Pineda.
