IT’S THAT time again when pundits and pollster proliferate.
Yeah, those twin fixtures of political polling heralding the advent of the election season.
So former Senate President Manny Villar leads the presidential derby with 25 percent of those surveyed most recently by Pulse Asia, having gained additional 11 percentage points in voter preference from his 14 percent last May.
What does that mean? Villar’s multi-million-peso expense in his infomercials is paying off handsomely.
But there must be something to Villar’s soar in popularity other than the infomercials. Were it so, Senator Mar Roxas, second only to Villar in political ad spending, must then also be second to him in the rankings. But lo and behold, Roxas is “only” fifth, at 11 percent, notwithstanding the extra media mileage his very public romancing of broadcaster Korina Sanchez gave him. The problem is in the product not in the packaging, said a marketing man.
That ousted, jailed, convicted and pardoned former President Joseph Estrada landed second to Villar in the polls at 19 percent bespeak of the people’s: a) inherent forgiving nature; b) gullibility; c) incorrigible stupidity; d) disgust over the current administration.
But who are we to say that?
Of greater interest to us Kapampangans is how our own presidentiable is faring in the surveys. So how fared Gov. Eddie T. Panlilio?
Let’s go over the listing now, top to bottom: Villar, Estrada, Vice President Noli de Castro, Sen. Francis Escudero, Roxas, Sen. Loren Legarda, Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, Chairman Bayani Fernando of the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, Sen. Richard Gordon, Bro. Eddie Villanueva – and then, alright! — Panlilio, lumped together with Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, Chief Justice Reynato Puno and John Carlos de los Reyes of Kapatiran, with less than 0.5 percent. A nose ahead of the tail-ender that was one Nicanor Perlas who got a big fat 0.
So what’s the significance of this survey?
With still a little less than nine months before the elections, “virtually every Filipino already has a preferred presidential candidate.” So said Pulse Asia chief research fellow Ana Maria Tabunda in a statement.
So, at 0.4 percent of the “vote”, Panlilio may have entertained doubts whether it was indeed God that called him to run for the presidency. Hence the now “big probability” of his dropping his presidential call in favor of Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino whose name was not included among the prospective presidential candidates in the Pulse Asia survey.
Conveniently forgetting what he once so solemnly proclaimed as God’s call, Panlilio now declares: “I’d like to concentrate more on my duties as governor and attend to the legal battle against the recount. The recount threatens to thwart the will of the Kapampangan who fielded me as an alternative candidate and gave me the mandate to remove corruption in the capitol and make it a machinery for services. That’s what I am trying to defend in the recount, not myself.”
There, read the candy wrapper, as Board Member Cris Garbo is wont to say: Panlilio has discarded his presidential ambition and will seek re-election whatever the outcome of the recount.
If Panlilio’s win in 2007 is affirmed, he needed a firmer affirmation in being re-elected, by a large margin this time, if only to erase all lingering doubts of the legitimacy of his victory. When former Board Member Lilia Pineda is declared the real winner, all the more Panlilio needed to run, and win by a large margin, if only to prove to the people what he has been saying about the recount: that it was a Malacañang-designed plot to oust him for his stand against the Palace occupants.
So how would we know if Panlilio still has the chances to win the governorship? Conduct survey?
Yes, somebody already did – in some places in Mabalacat – which purported that for Pampanga governor, Senator Lito Lapid got 68 percent of the 2,500 respondents, followed by Vice Gov. Yeng Guiao with 13 percent. Panlilio managed 9 percent.
Neither the name Lilia Pineda nor “Nanay Baby” was entered among the probable gubernatorial bets.
Lapid lording the polls there, notwithstanding his having been proven by Panlilio’s performance of having deprived the province of hundreds of millions of income from the quarry industry, is akin to Estrada closing in on Villar. Which could also be explained thus: the people – at least of Mabalacat – are: a) inherently forgiving in nature; b) gullible; c) incorrigibly stupid; d) disgusted over Panlilio.
But who are we to say that?
Much of the ways surveys are conducted hereabouts leave more questions than they answer. Not only in terms of margin of errors and confidence levels but in their actual conduct. I have often wondered about what I call “method in the randomness” of local surveys, which is a contradiction in terms, and a sure-fire way to pollute the survey results.
Of course, there’s nothing definite about the results of that Mabalacat survey as there is nothing definite in the current of political events in Pampanga.
My own survey says: The outcome of the recount has to be awaited.
Yeah, those twin fixtures of political polling heralding the advent of the election season.
So former Senate President Manny Villar leads the presidential derby with 25 percent of those surveyed most recently by Pulse Asia, having gained additional 11 percentage points in voter preference from his 14 percent last May.
What does that mean? Villar’s multi-million-peso expense in his infomercials is paying off handsomely.
But there must be something to Villar’s soar in popularity other than the infomercials. Were it so, Senator Mar Roxas, second only to Villar in political ad spending, must then also be second to him in the rankings. But lo and behold, Roxas is “only” fifth, at 11 percent, notwithstanding the extra media mileage his very public romancing of broadcaster Korina Sanchez gave him. The problem is in the product not in the packaging, said a marketing man.
That ousted, jailed, convicted and pardoned former President Joseph Estrada landed second to Villar in the polls at 19 percent bespeak of the people’s: a) inherent forgiving nature; b) gullibility; c) incorrigible stupidity; d) disgust over the current administration.
But who are we to say that?
Of greater interest to us Kapampangans is how our own presidentiable is faring in the surveys. So how fared Gov. Eddie T. Panlilio?
Let’s go over the listing now, top to bottom: Villar, Estrada, Vice President Noli de Castro, Sen. Francis Escudero, Roxas, Sen. Loren Legarda, Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, Chairman Bayani Fernando of the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, Sen. Richard Gordon, Bro. Eddie Villanueva – and then, alright! — Panlilio, lumped together with Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, Chief Justice Reynato Puno and John Carlos de los Reyes of Kapatiran, with less than 0.5 percent. A nose ahead of the tail-ender that was one Nicanor Perlas who got a big fat 0.
So what’s the significance of this survey?
With still a little less than nine months before the elections, “virtually every Filipino already has a preferred presidential candidate.” So said Pulse Asia chief research fellow Ana Maria Tabunda in a statement.
So, at 0.4 percent of the “vote”, Panlilio may have entertained doubts whether it was indeed God that called him to run for the presidency. Hence the now “big probability” of his dropping his presidential call in favor of Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino whose name was not included among the prospective presidential candidates in the Pulse Asia survey.
Conveniently forgetting what he once so solemnly proclaimed as God’s call, Panlilio now declares: “I’d like to concentrate more on my duties as governor and attend to the legal battle against the recount. The recount threatens to thwart the will of the Kapampangan who fielded me as an alternative candidate and gave me the mandate to remove corruption in the capitol and make it a machinery for services. That’s what I am trying to defend in the recount, not myself.”
There, read the candy wrapper, as Board Member Cris Garbo is wont to say: Panlilio has discarded his presidential ambition and will seek re-election whatever the outcome of the recount.
If Panlilio’s win in 2007 is affirmed, he needed a firmer affirmation in being re-elected, by a large margin this time, if only to erase all lingering doubts of the legitimacy of his victory. When former Board Member Lilia Pineda is declared the real winner, all the more Panlilio needed to run, and win by a large margin, if only to prove to the people what he has been saying about the recount: that it was a Malacañang-designed plot to oust him for his stand against the Palace occupants.
So how would we know if Panlilio still has the chances to win the governorship? Conduct survey?
Yes, somebody already did – in some places in Mabalacat – which purported that for Pampanga governor, Senator Lito Lapid got 68 percent of the 2,500 respondents, followed by Vice Gov. Yeng Guiao with 13 percent. Panlilio managed 9 percent.
Neither the name Lilia Pineda nor “Nanay Baby” was entered among the probable gubernatorial bets.
Lapid lording the polls there, notwithstanding his having been proven by Panlilio’s performance of having deprived the province of hundreds of millions of income from the quarry industry, is akin to Estrada closing in on Villar. Which could also be explained thus: the people – at least of Mabalacat – are: a) inherently forgiving in nature; b) gullible; c) incorrigibly stupid; d) disgusted over Panlilio.
But who are we to say that?
Much of the ways surveys are conducted hereabouts leave more questions than they answer. Not only in terms of margin of errors and confidence levels but in their actual conduct. I have often wondered about what I call “method in the randomness” of local surveys, which is a contradiction in terms, and a sure-fire way to pollute the survey results.
Of course, there’s nothing definite about the results of that Mabalacat survey as there is nothing definite in the current of political events in Pampanga.
My own survey says: The outcome of the recount has to be awaited.
