CITY OF SAN FERNANDO—If the country’s capital, Metro Manila, is hit by a 7.2-magnitude earthquake and the damages would be severe as projected in a study completed in 2004, Pampanga can serve as the temporary seat of government and business.
Dr. Renato Solidum, chief of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), shared this scenario to the Pampanga Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PamCham) during the disaster risk management briefing the latter organized here on Wednesday.
It was held to observe the anniversary of the July 16, 1990 earthquake in Central Luzon and to call for greater disaster preparedness and reduction, according to PamCham chair Levy Laus.
The 1990 tremor, 7.8 in magnitude and with epicenter in Rizal in Nueva Ecija, killed 1,280 people in Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija and Baguio City.
“Pampanga can provide the continuity for the national government and business when that disaster so strikes,” Solidum told an audience consisting of PamCham members, local officials, directors of regional government agencies, police and military officials.
The 7.2-magnitude earthquake, or Model 8, is the worst-case situation drawn up from among the 18 scenarios anticipated in the event the West Valley Fault System in Metro Manila moves, he said.
That system has moved four times in the last recorded centuries at a rate of once every 200 or 400 years.
“If the lower limit of 200 years is used, it can move in our generation,” Solidum said right after explaining that unlike typhoons, the occurrence of earthquakes cannot be exactly predicted.
Its location can be mapped out, its magnitude estimated and its damaging effects can be prevented, he said as he urged for readiness in families, schools, workplaces and communities.
Another scenario is the occurrence of an earthquake on the South China Sea, which could trigger a tsunami toward Manila Bay and areas along the mouth of the Pampanga River.
These scenarios were the result of the study “Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metropolitan Manila” that Phivolcs, Metropolitan Manila Development Authority and Japan International Cooperation Agency conducted between 2002 and 2004.
In Model 8, the earthquake can kill 33,500 people and injure 114,000 others, destroy 175,000 houses and partially damage 345,000 others, flatten 36 percent of 10- to 30-storey tall buildings and 14 percent of 30- to 60-storey high structures as well as render damages to 28 to 35 percent of public buildings.
Pampanga is being looked at as a possible alternative center of government and business because its neighboring province of Bulacan is closest to Metro Manila and thus, can experience stronger intensity, he said.
While Pampanga does not lie on an active fault, a strong earthquake in Metro Manila or a movement on the Philippine Fault Zone that transects Nueva Ecija and Tarlac can pose hazards like ground shaking and rupture, and liquefaction in Pampanga.
Pampanga suffered the impact of strong earthquakes in 1863, 1880 and 1959, Phivolcs records showed.
Pampanga, Solidum said, is in a position to serve as an alternative center because it has strategic facilities such as the Diosdado Macapagal International Airport at the Clark Freeport, which is linked to a seaport and airport at the Subic Bay Freeport in Zambales via the Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway and North Luzon Expressway.
The same approach can be done by provinces near earthquake-affected areas.
“What is important at this point is to make sure our families and communities are prepared and our houses and homes are structurally sound,” Solidum said. “We have to prepare for the strong one.”
Dr. Renato Solidum, chief of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), shared this scenario to the Pampanga Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PamCham) during the disaster risk management briefing the latter organized here on Wednesday.
It was held to observe the anniversary of the July 16, 1990 earthquake in Central Luzon and to call for greater disaster preparedness and reduction, according to PamCham chair Levy Laus.
The 1990 tremor, 7.8 in magnitude and with epicenter in Rizal in Nueva Ecija, killed 1,280 people in Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija and Baguio City.
“Pampanga can provide the continuity for the national government and business when that disaster so strikes,” Solidum told an audience consisting of PamCham members, local officials, directors of regional government agencies, police and military officials.
The 7.2-magnitude earthquake, or Model 8, is the worst-case situation drawn up from among the 18 scenarios anticipated in the event the West Valley Fault System in Metro Manila moves, he said.
That system has moved four times in the last recorded centuries at a rate of once every 200 or 400 years.
“If the lower limit of 200 years is used, it can move in our generation,” Solidum said right after explaining that unlike typhoons, the occurrence of earthquakes cannot be exactly predicted.
Its location can be mapped out, its magnitude estimated and its damaging effects can be prevented, he said as he urged for readiness in families, schools, workplaces and communities.
Another scenario is the occurrence of an earthquake on the South China Sea, which could trigger a tsunami toward Manila Bay and areas along the mouth of the Pampanga River.
These scenarios were the result of the study “Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metropolitan Manila” that Phivolcs, Metropolitan Manila Development Authority and Japan International Cooperation Agency conducted between 2002 and 2004.
In Model 8, the earthquake can kill 33,500 people and injure 114,000 others, destroy 175,000 houses and partially damage 345,000 others, flatten 36 percent of 10- to 30-storey tall buildings and 14 percent of 30- to 60-storey high structures as well as render damages to 28 to 35 percent of public buildings.
Pampanga is being looked at as a possible alternative center of government and business because its neighboring province of Bulacan is closest to Metro Manila and thus, can experience stronger intensity, he said.
While Pampanga does not lie on an active fault, a strong earthquake in Metro Manila or a movement on the Philippine Fault Zone that transects Nueva Ecija and Tarlac can pose hazards like ground shaking and rupture, and liquefaction in Pampanga.
Pampanga suffered the impact of strong earthquakes in 1863, 1880 and 1959, Phivolcs records showed.
Pampanga, Solidum said, is in a position to serve as an alternative center because it has strategic facilities such as the Diosdado Macapagal International Airport at the Clark Freeport, which is linked to a seaport and airport at the Subic Bay Freeport in Zambales via the Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway and North Luzon Expressway.
The same approach can be done by provinces near earthquake-affected areas.
“What is important at this point is to make sure our families and communities are prepared and our houses and homes are structurally sound,” Solidum said. “We have to prepare for the strong one.”
